2.21.2011

A Little Drafting History by Position

Have any of you taken a gander at the draft results over Hardball Heaven's history from 2003 until 2010? Well, I decided to take on a little undertaking to see how draft results may have changed over the years and what the popular positions are for the 1st three rounds. At a later date I plan on looking at rounds 4-6 to see the tendencies. I am not sure if this post will influence your draft strategy or not, but for those that look at position scarcity to help you decide early, then this may help. Who remember good 'ole' 2007 when Hardballers made his infamous pick of Chase Utley at #1 for a coveted 2nd baseman, when nobody had him on the radar that early? I sure remember and looking at the results I will give does show 2nd basemen to have their shortcomings in round #1. Have time changed for position drafting? In our league, yes they have. I believe there are two reasons: 1) The evolution of the game for position players has changed over the years. 2) The managers at Hardball Heaven have gotten more savvy and portray more knowledge of this great game. You will see as I go along. Remember, these are picks from rounds 1-3 from 2003-2010. Also, (APD) will mean "Average Players Drafted".

Round 1:
Outfielders (29 picks) This one surprised me. Even though there are more outfielders than all positions, I was surprised to see so many considering that OF is deeper than most spots. The APD of 3.625 is pretty high, but the trend has fallen a bit over the last few years to an average of about 3 OF'ers drafted.
1st Basemen (23 picks, APD 2.875) This was not a surprise to me as there always seems to be quality first basemen. Trends have shown over the past 3 years that this position is drafted more heavily early on, so don't be late to the party! Albert Pujols, even though, not always picked #1, has been in the first round since we started the league. Now that is saying something. I think the lowest is the 8th pick!
3rd Basemen (14 picks, APD 1.75) As you can see after 1B and the OF, the number really drops off. I thought this would be a tad higher as it is a position to get power, but honestly 3B hasn't always been that deep. Most years, one could count on A-Rod or David Wright or Miguel Cabrera when he was at 3rd, but they have dropped a bit and Miggy is now at 1B with only Longoria replacing them. Position is on the decline in terms of 1st rounders.
Shortstop (13 picks, APD 1.625) When thinking of SS from 2008 to present, Hanley Ramirez is a constant. Before him it was Reyes and Rollins for a couple of seasons. Then there seemed to be one season wonders like Michael Young, Miguel Tejada and Derek Jeter. This is a position where there is scarcity, which enables Hanley to jump over Pujols like what happened in 2009 when Stars has the first pick. Nothing wrong with that as Hanley has the power/speed combo. The shortstop trend has increased a bit over the last few years. I attribute this to scarcity at the position.
2nd Basemen (8 picks, APD 1.0) Talk about weak. This was a real surprise considering how deep the position has become in recent years. The king early was Alfonso Soriano from 2003-2005. I forgot he even played 2nd base! Utley has been picked 3 times with an interruption being by Kinsler in 2009. One thing to note is all these players have pop and speed. Obvious 1st rounders, but how about now? Is Utley or Kinsler worth that ever again? Soriano is nearing the end, so will he even get drafted? Not much will change this year as Cano is really the only concensus #1. Position is rising in terms of depth, but not in first round picks.
Starting Pitching (8 picks, APD 1.0) Now here is where the league has really changed their stance. For instance in 2003, year 1 of the league, there were 4 (yes count 'em' "F-O-U-R") #1 picks. Wow, was I stunned to see this! I know baseball is becoming more pitcher dominant since we are not in the steroids era now, but that was a shocker to me. Randy Johnson came in at the second overall pick to Champs, Curt Schilling at the fifth to Baseman, Pedro Martinez at seventh to Hardballers, and Barry Zito at tenth to 8 More Outs (who the hell was 8 More Outs???) What a bunch of amatuers we were. Never will that happen again in HH I can assure you. The last pitcher picked in the first round was Johan Santana in 2007 at ten by Squirrels. The trend of picking pitchers in round 1 has definitely been non-existent for 3 years now.
Catchers (1 pick, APD .125) There really is not trend here. But can you guess the catcher, the spot picked, and the manager? Take some time and think this over. Ok, that is enough time for you. The answer is Joe Mauer at #3 by Zonk in 2010. Mauer was worthy of being picked high last year, but in my opinion picking a catcher that high is extremely risky. Mauer does play alot for a catcher with the use of the DH, yet he better be Superman if I'm taking a catcher in the first round. Ballsy pick by Zonk.

2nd Round: There will be shorter commentary for this round and the 3rd round.
Outfielders (30 picks, APD 3.75) The number jumped up from round 1. Outfielders are plentiful, but popular just the same.
1st Base (19 picks, APD 2.375) Still popular even after round 1. This position is loaded offensively, but again jump quick before the 1st two rounds as these guys go fast.
Pitching (13 picks, APD 1.625) This is the only position that really changes much in the 2nd round. Doesn't change dramatically, but a few top tier guys will go in round 2.
Shortstop (12 picks, APD 1.5) Pretty consistent with round 1. Plenty of shortstops to be had later in the draft. I think with position scarcity over the years that most teams tend to wait if not getting a top tier player.
3rd Basemen (11 picks, APD 1.375) Some drop off here, but still pretty consistent from Round 1. Teams tend to wait on this position if not getting a top tier guy like SS.
2nd Basemen (5 picks, APD .625) Poor 2nd base gets no love. Not many in round 1 and hardly any here. I think this trend could change in the upcoming years, but probably not dramatically.
Relief Pitchers (2 picks, APD .25) I literally dropped my jaw here and to think that in 2004 I took relief pitcher Eric Gagne in the 2nd round. And to think I won the title that year from start to finish. How in the hell??? Maybe if a reliever saves 70 games, then possibly someone will pull this stunt again? But, I doubt it. The league and MYSELF has grown up since the early days!!!! Holy Cow!
Catchers (1 pick, APD .125) Mike Piazza was the pick. Again, taking a catcher this early is gambling with House Money!

3rd Round
OF (27 picks, APD 3.375) Nothing changes. Outfielders are hot and heavy.
Starting Pitching (17 picks, APD 2.125) Ok, now is the time to at least start thinking about dipping into the pitcher pool!
2nd Basemen (12 picks, APD 1.5) Finally, a few more 2nd basemen start coming off the board. Not by much, but they are in the conversation now.
3rd Basemen (11 picks, APD 1.375) Things are starting to even out a bit in terms of positions. This position has been consistent the whole way so far.
SS (10 picks, APD 1.25) Surprising, but SS has dropped more from rounds 1 and 2.
1st Basemen (8 picks, APD 1.0) The gravy train of 1B has to stop somewhere, so round 3 is where the slow down starts.
Catchers (5 picks, APD .625) Still not a lot of interest yet for catchers, but still some risk takers out there.
Relief pitchers (5 picks, APD .625) Hey if you want a reliever at this point, then be my guest.

Hope you all enjoyed. I know this piece brought up some names I haven't heard of in awhile after doing my research.
BASEMAN

4 comments:

  1. Since we are revealing draft trends, and by default strategies, I want to put forth an argument to see what the others think.

    I want to review the Utley pick in 2007. 2nd base was then, and continues to be now, extremely thin at the highest level. Arguably there is only 1 top tier 2nd baseman this season which is Cano. In 2007 that player was Utley. With Utley I was drafting a 30/20 player with a good average. His season was shortened by injury and he only played 132 games so he only wound up with 20/9 but the average was still there. I followed that pick up in the 2nd round with J Morneau who was projected @ 30 HRs and 100+ RBI's.

    Between the 2 after 2 rounds I had drafted (by projections) 60 HR's, 200+ RBI's, 20 SB, with an average around .290

    Actuals for the 2 after injuries was 53 HR's, 214 RBI's, 9 SB (this was due to Utley's injury) and a .300 avg. Not bad #'s but you can see if Utley hadn't had the injury then the projections would have been right on.

    Now lets look at possibly the consensus #1 pick for that season (although Reyes was actually taken 2nd that year) in Pujols. Pujols would have been projected at 40+ HR's, 110+ RBI's 10 SB and of course a good avg. The #2 2nd Baseman (or at least the 2nd one picked) was Brian Roberts.(taken in round 4)His projections would have run something like 10 HR's, 30+ SB's and a .290avg maybe.

    The actuals for those 2 combined was 44 HR's, 160 RBI,s 52 SB, with a .308 avg.

    In our 5 offensive categories the actuals for those 2 went like this (Utley/Morneau 1st #, Pujols/Roberts 2#) Runs 188-202, Hits 336-365, HR 53-44, RBI 214-160,SB 52-10, AVG .300-.308

    In that comparison Pujols/Roberts won 4 of 6 categories but it is easy to see that except for SB, Utley/Morneau would have probably won 4 of 6 had Utley not missed 20+ games (and played injured for a little while before missing).

    My argument is simply this. When you have a bonafide 4-5 category player in a weak postition such as 2nd base was that year, it may make more sense to reach for them over a perennially deep position like 1st base. The difference between #1 and #2 at 2nd base was a dang sight higher than the difference between #1 Pujols and Morneau who was actually the 7th 1B picked.

    Pujols is the consensus #1 pick again this year. If I get the 1st pick I may very well take him this time. But I would point out that there are at least 4 1B that can put up #'s comparable to Pujols... not as good as Pujols but comparable.... and there are probably 3 more that can give you comparable HR's and RBI's.

    How many other positions can you say that about?

    I know I am still pissin' and moanin' about that 2007 season and the flack I took for picking Utley #1 but if he had not gotten injured I would have looked like a genius!

    btw Baseman...... you can in 11th place that season... what was your master friggin plan.... lol

    Hardballers

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  2. Do I need to mention Felipe Lopez in the 4th? Nah, I won't mention it.
    Yes, my year sucked, as I had no master plan that year.

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  3. Ok, so I had a man crush on Lopez that year. Actually for a few years there. I have since purged myself of that affliction.
    "Pablo, O Pablo, Where art thou sweet Pablo?"

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  4. great post ! Randy stop being so sensitive over your Utley pick...c'mere, let me give you a hug haha

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