April in Review

Baseball more than any other fantasy sport is a game of #'s. Players tend to play to their averages and follow trends. As I have become more familiar with fantasy baseball I have realized that the better understanding you have of the #'s the better able you are to compete on a weekly basis. That is not to take anything away from the daily managing of your team. You still have to react in a timely manner to things such as injuries, slumps, hot streaks and trades.

We all know there is a luck factor in baseball as well. Nothing is more frustrating than to have a good week statistically and still lose the match because you run up against a team a little hotter than you. Nothing can be more rewarding than to run up against a team that is experiencing a down week. Such is baseball. Just ask any pitcher that comes out on the short end of 2-1 ballgame.

One statistic that I have tracked for the last few seasons has been what I call the "Recipe for Success". Quite simply it is the average stat in each category based on league results. My theory being that if I can exceed the "average" in each category then I am playing well enough to win. Over the course of the season if I can consistently meet or exceed the average stat then I should be in the playoffs. Now we all know that may not happen but at least I am giving myself a chance. One thing I have noticed is that the average stat is amazingly consistent in each category from year to year.

What I want to try and do is track the recipe on a monthly basis. See how much deviation, if any, there is as the season progresses. So with that in mind here is the "Recipe for Success" for April.

Offensively

R	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
31	57	7	29	5	0.272

Defensively

W	L	S	BB	K	ERA
4	2	3	19	45	3.60

Now, based with that information, I decided to see if I could quantify the "luck" factor. For that I am simply using the above #'s as the standard line score. Then I compare each teams weekly results against it. Beat that # and you get a W, drop below that # and you get an L, tie that # and well you get a tie. Not particularly scientific but I would contend that if you beat the above #'s in a category in any given week then you played well enough to win the category. Drop below those #'s and you did not deserve to win the category. 

The usual disclaimers apply especially as it relates to managers reacting to their competition. If you have a SB/HR option at a position and you are trailing in HR's then obviously you may opt to forgo the SB ops for HR possibility. Pitching is it's own special monster as the decision to freeze out your opponent in order to maximize points may have you actually conceding a category or two in the process. 

Here are the standings as they would be if we all competed against the Recipe each week. 

Team	W	L	T
Halfway	28	17	3
Stars	27	17	4
Blind Squirrels	26	19	3
Champions	25	19	4
Reds	24	22	2
Baseman	22	20	6
Zonk	22	22	4
New York	21	23	4
Plaz	20	23	5
Coyote Ugly	19	24	5
Tenn	16	28	4
Ageless	10	33	5

Now if you compare your actual standing against this standing I think you can get an idea of which side of the "luck" factor you have wound up on. 

Also I think you can use this standing to get a feel for your "strength of schedule" so far for the year. Have you been stacked up against the hotter teams? or have you been the benefactor of a cake walk so far?

I may try and break this down offensively and defensively in a separate post if you think you would find it interesting. I am interested in hearing some feedback. Do you think this is useful information or just another infamous "Useless Info" conglomeration of stats?

Randy