5.31.2010

Week in Review: Week 8

Changing of the guard has been the question going into this season and even over the past few seasons. Well at least into the regular season, this seems a moot point at the moment because it's not happening according to standings. Right now 4 teams that made the playoffs last year are currently in the top 6 with those being Stars, Baseman, Squirrels, and Ageless. Hardballers historically has been there as well. Champs has in the past and is experiencing a resurgence. Changing of the guard may happen still, but some changes will have to take place. Here's my Review of the Week.

Stars 9 to Ageless 2: Well, Mike's team came back to earth a bit after his rousing victory over B-Man. Stars feasted on the Ageless One and it may have appeared closer that it really was due to Mike's team having a big last day. But really this was a one-sided affair. Stars was led by Carlos Gonzalez and Jose Reyes. Cargo is the real deal and has surpassed my expectations this year. Reyes is coming on strong as he had 13 hits. This is much needed for the offense which is about middle of the pack or just above it in overall stats. Will Posey be the real deal? Can Aramis Ramirez start hitting? If this happens, then Stars, who is kind of overperforming record-wise so far will bust out. Also, what is going on with Linecum? Still good stats, but not the Lincecum we are used to seeing. Right now Stars has to be real pleased where he is at. Ageless seems to pitch low in innings and hope to steal about 3 categories each week. Other than Josh Johnson and some decent relief, no one really jumps off the page. Johnson had some tough luck finishing with a 0.00 ERA, but suffered a loss. Kubel is coming alive and Crawford has been a bonafide all-sgar this year. Crawford is playing for big free agent dollars. Not a real exciting matchup numbers wise, but a big win by Stars to move into first place.

BASEMAN 9 to Utica 2: Wow, was this a close one statistically, but not by the score. B-Man had the lead all week, but just by some nosehairs. Easily could have switched on Sunday, but Mark's team had a big day to spoil Utica's hopes. For the Uticans to only win 2 points in pitching was a crime. He had a 1.51 ERA and lost to B-Man's 1.11 ERA. Had 7 W's and no losses, but still tied in losses as B-Man had 0 as well. The pitching numbers by Utica usually would win a team 4 points, but he was unlucky and only got 2. Offensively Utica had an off week for him and got swept. Lost in SB's with 9 to B-Man's 10. Rarely will that ever happen. Anyway, bright spots for Kerm were Hunter Pence, who is swinging a hot bat and Evan Longoria. Both of the players showed speed with 3 bags each. Longoria stealing bags is another dimension that teams now need to fear. B-Man just keeps riding the coattails of Ubaldo Jiminez. After Monday's peformance, he has a 0.78 ERA, which is ridiculous. This playing in Colorado of all places. The Rocks play spectacular defense and is one of the best in baseball to help matters. Jon Lester and Randy Wolf threw up 0.00 ERA's as well. For those rooting against B-Man, there was the loss of Kendry Morales, so the offense took a hit. But, I will find a way to plug the gap.

Hardballers 6 to White Flag 5: Let's just say Timmy came on like gangbusters the last day to make this a close contest. David Ortiz is back! 3 homers and a .391 average looks pretty good about now. Why does it take this guy so long to get going though! We will see if the trade for Garza pans out. Terrible week for him and didn't get the win against the Jays tonight. We shall see? For Randy's team, they can roll out the hits. Cano is just unstoppable most weeks and a huge pickup is Miguel Olivio for the Rockies who hit .571. The piching is solid as well even though Sabathia had his hiccups. Clay Buchholz has been the pitcher everyone thought he could be. If Oswalt gets traded to a decent team then watch out. I like the makeup of this team, and they will outhit most teams every week. When Fielder starts getting on a roll for more power, then it can be lights out for opponents. Very solid club here.

Champs 7 to Squirrels 5: Outside of Squirrels 9 HR's and Champs 1.36 ERA, this matchup was nothing to write home about. On second thought, I must give props to Halladay's perfect game. Too bad Champs just got one performance from the guy. He is absolutely amazing. Two perfect games in one year before the end of May! Champs is dominating the pitching stats to keep his team afloat. Now if he only had some offense, then bend over and grab the ankles. Oh yeah, and Stephen Strasburg will be up soon to face the overpowering Pirates. Champs just gets better in pitching. Feast or famine on offense. Good team here that is not going away! What is happening with Dan Haren for Juan's club? He has given up 16 dingers already. What I expected to be a good staff has been only mediocre. The offense has holes, but with Pujols getting hot, a lot of the deficits can be covered. Luke Scott or Andruw Jones in left? Not going to cut it. Not sure what getting Castro is going to do either at SS? Better hope Vlad keeps it up and Heyward keeps hitting as well.

I will have to do the other two matchups tomorrow. Must go to bed.

BASEMAN

5.07.2010

April Splits Offense vs Defense

The last post demonstrated the total team standings as it relates to the "Recipe for Success". Today I will give the OFF/DEF splits.

1st we will look at the Offensive standings


 
Team W L T
Halfway 18 5 1
Reds 16 7 1
Baseman 15 8 1
Stars 14 8 2
Uticans 14 8 2
Plaz 12 11 1
Blind Squirrels 11 12 1
Zonk 10 14 0
Coyote Utley 9 13 2
Champions 7 16 1
Tenn 5 18 1
Ageless 4 20 0
 

Probably no real surprises in those #'s as some managers are traditionally more offensively inclined than others. There is also the possibility that some teams have key players that are traditionally slow starters.

Now a look at the Defensive standings.

Team W L T
Champions 18 3 3
Blind Squirrels 15 7 2
Stars 13 9 2
Zonk 12 8 4
Tenn 11 10 3
Coyote Utley 10 11 3
Halfway 10 12 2
Reds 8 12 4
Plaz 8 15 1
Baseman 7 12 5
Uticans 7 15 2
Ageless 6 13 5

The 1st thing that stands out to me in this group is the increased # of ties. This further supports the strategic aspect of the pitching categories. Does your individual results reflect the strength of your staff or the shrewdness of you managing skills?

The splits definitely point to some strengths and weaknesses for individual teams. Just in case you were wondering where you needed to hone up your staff. Of course it is only 1 month but do you feel the results accurately define your team makeup or just demonstrate your early season luck?

Only you can decide

Hardballers

5.06.2010

April in Review

Baseball more than any other fantasy sport is a game of #'s. Players tend to play to their averages and follow trends. As I have become more familiar with fantasy baseball I have realized that the better understanding you have of the #'s the better able you are to compete on a weekly basis. That is not to take anything away from the daily managing of your team. You still have to react in a timely manner to things such as injuries, slumps, hot streaks and trades.

We all know there is a luck factor in baseball as well. Nothing is more frustrating than to have a good week statistically and still lose the match because you run up against a team a little hotter than you. Nothing can be more rewarding than to run up against a team that is experiencing a down week. Such is baseball. Just ask any pitcher that comes out on the short end of 2-1 ballgame.

One statistic that I have tracked for the last few seasons has been what I call the "Recipe for Success". Quite simply it is the average stat in each category based on league results. My theory being that if I can exceed the "average" in each category then I am playing well enough to win. Over the course of the season if I can consistently meet or exceed the average stat then I should be in the playoffs. Now we all know that may not happen but at least I am giving myself a chance. One thing I have noticed is that the average stat is amazingly consistent in each category from year to year.

What I want to try and do is track the recipe on a monthly basis. See how much deviation, if any, there is as the season progresses. So with that in mind here is the "Recipe for Success" for April.

Offensively

H HR RBI SB AVG
31 57 7 29 5 0.272

Defensively
W L S BB K ERA
4 2 3 19 45 3.60

Now, based with that information, I decided to see if I could quantify the "luck" factor. For that I am simply using the above #'s as the standard line score. Then I compare each teams weekly results against it. Beat that # and you get a W, drop below that # and you get an L, tie that # and well you get a tie. Not particularly scientific but I would contend that if you beat the above #'s in a category in any given week then you played well enough to win the category. Drop below those #'s and you did not deserve to win the category. 

The usual disclaimers apply especially as it relates to managers reacting to their competition. If you have a SB/HR option at a position and you are trailing in HR's then obviously you may opt to forgo the SB ops for HR possibility. Pitching is it's own special monster as the decision to freeze out your opponent in order to maximize points may have you actually conceding a category or two in the process. 

Here are the standings as they would be if we all competed against the Recipe each week. 

Team W L T
Halfway 28 17 3
Stars 27 17 4
Blind Squirrels 26 19 3
Champions 25 19 4
Reds 24 22 2
Baseman 22 20 6
Zonk 22 22 4
New York 21 23 4
Plaz 20 23 5
Coyote Ugly 19 24 5
Tenn 16 28 4
Ageless 10 33 5

Now if you compare your actual standing against this standing I think you can get an idea of which side of the "luck" factor you have wound up on. 

Also I think you can use this standing to get a feel for your "strength of schedule" so far for the year. Have you been stacked up against the hotter teams? or have you been the benefactor of a cake walk so far?

I may try and break this down offensively and defensively in a separate post if you think you would find it interesting. I am interested in hearing some feedback. Do you think this is useful information or just another infamous "Useless Info" conglomeration of stats?

Randy

5.02.2010

Week 4 in Review: April Sunshine, May Snowflakes

I am so glad there is no more "global warming," but to be politically correct we now have "climate change." I know climate change has affected our baseball season this year, but so far it's for the better. Where were all the common rainouts in April? Shoot, I had no excuses for my team losing due to lack of AB's due to constant rainouts. Actually, it was a joy not seeing the PPD come up on my fantasy screen. Now could May be a different story? I know if the Rockies were at home today, the game would have been cancelled due to SNOW! So, instead of "May Flowers", might we in Hardball Heaven again start cursing our screens due to some cancellations. They are bound to happen, so watch out for some of that inclement weather. For those who may be wondering, I am more for "polar cooling" actually. Then, baseball can be played in nothing but domes and there will never be PPD's. Just a little satirical view on "political correctness" that unfortunately has to epitomize our society. Now onto some baseball information!!

Uticans 6 to Champions 4: Was this a true upset? Champions has been at the top all season so far. It was an upset, but a minor one in my estimation. Champs easily has the better staff, and it showed, but the offense is stagnant and dropping each week. Of course, Utica's offense dominated and only hit .248. Champs better enjoy his reign at the top for now, because it ain't going to last much longer. Outside of SB's, the offense was absolutely abysmal. With the likes of Jay Bruce and Adam Dunn, this team is going to go through some droughts. Jose Guillen isn't going to keep it up forever either and he came back to earth this week. I'm not buying into any Ike Davis hype either. Don't get me wrong, the offense has the potential to blow you out of the water some weeks, but there are going to be some severe power outage numbers like this week that is bound to drag this team down. Pitching is relied on heavily for this team to succeed over the long haul. It is a better than average staff, but not enough to overcome the offensive shortcomings. Look for Ed's fantastic start to start leveling off. As for Uticans, had an off week offensively and won. The offense is a given with Longoria and Jeter delivering on cue every week. I think Austin Jackson will not continue to deliver like a madman soon as the league figures him out, but ride him while you can. Pitching staff actually had a decent week, but still lost out. More often than not they will as they can be wild. Riding a roller coaster will be what Utica experiences with this bunch all season long. Reminds me too much of last year's squad. Good win to beat a first place team though.

Stars 6 to Hardballers 6: Stars just hung on in this tightly contested thriller after pouncing all over Hardballers early in the week. Stephen's team was putting up some frightening awesome numbers early on. Drafting Carlos Gonzalez was brilliant as he hit .390 with 2 dingers, 10 RBI's, and 3 SB's. This guy can flat out play as I watch him almost daily. Ryan Doumit hit well on the left coast this week posting a .400 batting average. If only Stars pitching staff performed like the first 3 weeks, then this matchup could have gotten ugly for Randy. But to be kind, his staff really had a nice week, so the points were very deserving on the defensive end. Who is the best player in MLB right now. Hands down, it is Robinson Cano! He hit .440 with 11 hits and 4 HR's. Not the first week, he has put up some impressive numbers either. It may not be pretty for teams when Prince Fielder gets going either. I haven't even mentioned Andre Eithier who hit 4 HR's himself with 10 Runs, 10 RBI's and a .385 average. OK, a lot of that onslaught was against the Pirates, but the last I checked they were a major league team (I think?) This was a matchup to watch this week!

Blind Squirrels 10 to Zonk 1: Swami predicted this one to be a no-brainer. Looks like it was with Squirrels putting an ass whooping on Zonk. Yet, it was predicted that Squirrels would get an ass kicking, so what was up? Squirrels numbers offensively and defensively was "UP!" Squirrels had an outstanding pitching performance and I warned the league about this before the season began. If Juan can hold his own offensively, the this team is going to be tough to deal with. Chris Carpenter was dealing with 2 W's. Dan Haren was his usual self. Niemann plays for an offensive power on the Rays. Ricky Romero is underrated playing in Toronto. Unfortunately for Squirrels is that De La Rosa may be out for some time with a torn tendon in his finger. The big question on offense is if the young guns can keep it up throughout the long season like Heyward, McCutcheon, and Escobar. Kelly Johnson has been spectacular in AZ. Can he keep up the pace? There are proven commodities in Pujols, Reynolds, and Kinsler (just coming back), but some question marks. Also, Ivan Rodriguez is hitting excellent right now. Can this offense keep it going??? It did this week and won BIG! Zonk has had some misfortune happen to his club and it showed. Losing Ellsbury and Nelson Cruz is a big blow. Cruz was literally, tearing the cover off the ball. This team has some serious weapons! Theriot was a great pickup as he continued his hot streak hitting .419 with 13 hits. Butler was solid, but the rest of the offense took the week off. King Felix had a surprising bad week with 2 losses. You won't see that much. Now Trevor Hoffman is killing this team! He reminds me of Kevin Gregg, whom I had to suffer with last year. OMG, Zonk has Kevin Gregg too! Yikes! I love the starting pitching staff, but the relief pitching is going to be murder for Stephen's team to deal with all year. It won't last!! But, let's just say playing Zonk now in the schedule is the time to be doing it. When the offense gets healty, this is one of the last teams I would want to deal with. This will easily be the worst loss of the season for Zonk!

BASEMAN 9 to Hitters 3: Don't know why it is, but always have good fortune against Tommy's team. The offensive categories were close until about 2 days left and then B-Man's team exploded! The league was warned about the offense before the season, and of course most teams thought I was being biased. Maybe that looked like the case, but check the stats and one will see I wasn't kidding. Now watch my team lay a goose egg next week.....LOL. I knew all was going well when I had to use Brandon Inge to sub for Zimmerman, and Inge only hit 3 HR's. Then Zimmerman comes back on Friday and hits me 2 HR's. Hanley R. hit 4 dingers this week. One weird stat came in pitching where Tommy got his first victory in saves. Despite having 3 legit closers to Tommy's one closer in Feliz, Hitters wins 3 saves to 0 saves. Now who would have thought that. But then, my team win the W's, but pitches about 4 games less. Pitching is one facet very tough to figure out. Let's just say you hope to have an ace or two who you hope to give you the best chance to win! Tommy's team will step it up. The offense is too good. Rickie Weeks at 2nd base is a huge question mark, but the rest of the pieces are there. Cliff Lee came back strong with 0 BB's and 8 K's, but didn't pick up the win despite giving up 0 runs. Problem with Seattle is they don't score much. Question? Tommy, are the Orioles your favorite team because you have a boatload of them? Why is a bigger question?

REDS 7 to Ageless 4: Rick RED'S took out the sticks this week for an impressive offensive performance. Ageless' offense might have well not even played this week as it was just plain "Sorry." Let's start with some positives, which was REDS performance. 4 guys hit over .4oo this week. Standouts were Asdrubal Cabrera, Tejada, Marlon Byrd and David Wright. Marlon Byrd has been a nice surprise this season and D. Wright is back to his old self. Tejada must have discovered the fountain of youth because he just keeps on keeping on! Bad break losing Granderson and Manny will help big time when he comes back. Teams need to take advantage of Rick's team now. Not sure what happened to the pitching, but was almost a complete sweep for the lone bright spot for Ageless. James Shields and Josh Johnson were dominant with 12 K's apiece. Mike needs these 2 horses to continue and carry the load. Sizemore and Kubel need to get the bats going soon as well. Garrett Jones has stopped hitting after a decent start. This team drastically underachieved this week and was fortunate the loss wasn't a massive beat down! Ageless needs to right the ship in a hurry or this team will be way off course of finding any sort of destination.

Plaz 7 to Coyote Utley 4: For two teams at the bottom, they sure didn't play like it. These clubs do have some holes, but they won't stay at the bottom. First off, looking at the offense, I see Power!Plaz led the league this week with 44 runs. A ton of participants in that category. The teams won't win any batting titles, but they do produce. Vernon Wells is playing up to his might contract and Josh Hamilton is healthy and starting to hit like his old self. Good news for Plaz! There is punch on this squad. For Utley, Konerko and Cantu had a great month of April. If they can keep it up, then this team will climb. Lots of power as evidenced by 13 HR's and 38 RBI's. In pitching, Colby Lewis has been a gem so far for Utley. Matt Cain had a nice performance as well. The problem is Javier Vazquez. What is it with him and NY? Ben Sheets had an awful week. These two pitchers have to turn it around for Coyote to get back in contention. Plaz has had terrible luck with Grienke, who has pitched like his Cy Young self, but getting absolutely no support from KC's punchless offense. Hamels has not got it really going yet and he is going to be crucial to Plaz's success. Can these two clubs turn it around. Oh yes, but how far is the question?

Hope you enjoyed!
BASEMAN