No single event is more anticipated than the annual draft. More collective time and effort is focused on this one 1 1/2 hr to 2 hr time frame than most entire weeks during the season. And no pick is more important in the draft than that all important 1st rounder. The goal is simple. Make the best possible pick to anchor your team on your quest for league supremacy.
Some managers think that nothing is a better predictor of final season outcomes than the original draft results. I do not happen to fall in to that general mindset. I have always contended that you can not win the league on draft day but you can go a long way toward complicating the process with an ill prepared draft strategy. My theory is that nothing is more crucial to league success than daily team management. The ability to stay on top of everything from injuries and slumps to hot streaks and changing roles is the key to a successful season.
And of course a little personal intuition can come in handy too from time to time.
So, with that in mind and inspired by Stars "Biggest Bust" poll, I decided to go back and compare just how well all that pre-draft blood, sweat and tears has paid off for us.
First, let's go back to draft day and recall who those all important 1st round picks were. I have them listed in the order they were drafted and which team drafted them and then put their year-to-date "rank" (not O-Rank) in the final columns as a comparison.
Brace yourself........
Kemp, Tulo, and Ellsbury have spent appreciable amounts of time on the DL so it is easy to attribute their performance (or lack thereof) to injury. But did you really intentionally invest a first round pick in someone you anticipated being injured? I think not.
So what's A Gonzalez, Pujols and Fielder's excuse?
Looks like the 2 picks performing closest to their perceived value are Braun and Votto. Both of whom have subsequently been dealt away
So just who IS the top player in the league? What SHOULD that 1st round have looked like?
So glad you asked. As of today (6/19/12) your top 12 performers by "rank" are as follows. Notice the original draft positions of players (2.9= Round 2 pick 9)
Ha! After hours of podcasts, mock drafts, expert analysis articles and a half dozen cheat sheets thrown in for good measure, the #1 starting pitcher was sitting there on the waiver wire the whole time.... who knew? I am sure Timmy was also thinking "stud" all the way when he nabbed Kipnis in the 14th as well.
Ok, enough of the fun. It's not even officially mid-season yet and there is a lot of baseball to be played. Before things are over Pujols could very well be back in the top 12 along with several others drafted in the 1st round. But the fact remains that if you were counting on Tulo to take you to the promised land this season then you are probably in a world of shit right now. (ooops.... sorry about that Chad... lol)
Maybe that 1st round pick ain't so crucial after all ........
Speak your piece or forever hold your mind .. (or something like that)
Nice post Randy, thanks! While it's fair to say I wasn't thinking 'stud' with Kipnis, I did do my homework here and was gunning for him the whole draft. I was very pleased to get him as low I did and even more pleased with his output. I also did similar work to get Alex Avila, the catcher for the Tigers. That didn't turned out nearly as well.
ReplyDeleteI remember holding my trigger finger over Carlos Gonzalez in the first round. Wish it was a little bit more itchy, at least as things stand right now, but time will tell. He just did something to his hammy and Fielder, despite his size, has been remarkably durable over the years. Time will tell.
Thanks again for the post.
-tw