Why We Love H2H.............

or NOT... depending on which end of a close matchup you wind up on.

I love the thrill of watching the stats accumulate each week. Back and forth up and down. One minute you're up.... go take a leak and come back and "poof" things have turned around. Actually can get rather nerve racking if you spend much time watching stattracker.

Maybe you just check it once or twice a day and miss all the ups and downs that transpire throughout the day but even then it often amazes at how things can change from one day to the next.

Then there is Sunday. " I just need one more of this or 2 more of that"... "If only my opponent can have an off day today". Or maybe it goes more like this.. ."Why did I start that sorry so-and-so" ....."Leave it to (insert name here) to stink it up just when I needed it most". "Sonofabench!.... why didn't I have him in the lineup today?" There always seems to be a few categories up for grabs on Sunday just to keep us on our toes.

We all know that the requisite number of stats needed to win each week is exactly equal to "1" better than your opponent. Some teams seem to be consistently good in certain categories. Play Baseman and you better plan on keeping the ERA low. Go against Tenn with less than 65 hits and you may as well concede the category. TFP and Champs can steal bases at will. And so on and so on.

Ever since I have been keeping stats I have tried to determine a winning formula that, if achieved, would almost guarantee I win more than I lose over the course of the season.  The most logical approach that I have been able to come up with is determining what the average stat line for the league is and then know that I have to have the ability to meet or exceed it each week. It amazes me that there is almost no change from season to season. Not very scientific I know.

What happens when you have a 2.20 ERA like Ageless did last week, which is way better than league average, only to be out done by Baseman who had a 1.58? Well, the same thing that happens when Cliff Lee throws 10 shutout innings and doesn't get a W..... IT SUCKS! But at least you know you played well enough to win but things just didn't break your way. You can only hope that over the course of the season things like that will balance out in the end.

So here at mid season it seems like an appropriate point to see which side of the "breaks" your team has been on so far. What I have done is figured the average stat line for the league for the season to date. Here is how it breaks down.



Now lets compare each team week by week to this line and see how you would have fared. Keep in mind that if you beat a category then you played well enough to win that category for that week. I have listed the teams in order of winning %.



And just to save you trouble of looking it up yourself, here is how it compares to the "actual" league standings.

What'choo talkin' about Willis!

Well I guess what it all boils down to is this. Hardballers, TFP, Stars, Utica and Squirrels ain't got much to complain about. Looks like their standings in the league mirror their overall performance.

Hitters and Baseman are pretty much on course as well. 

On the other hand....... Zonk and Panties must be stroking the baseball gods pretty regular as they are both way higher in the standings than their overall performance suggests.
  
Meanwhile..... Champions, Ageless and SoS must just plain not be living right. If they will make their amends to the baseball gods they should see a few more breaks go their way in the 2nd half.

This comparison demonstrates (in my eyes at least) the importance of consistency. Racking up 87 K's in one week works wonders in the roto standings but only gets you 1 point, for 1 week, in H2H. Hopefully this provides some ray of hope for some of you while others may want to take a moment to reflect on their current situation as we enter the 2nd half.

I know this is an incredibly long post but one that I have been wanting to do for a long, long  time. Hope you find it interesting and am looking forward to some feedback.

Roto Standings Thru Week 11

Weekly roto leader was Ageless with 85 pts. Hitters led the hitting with 55 pts and Zonk led the pitching with 50 pts.

Here is your mid season roto standings.




Still working on some other mid season spread sheet ideas.

Still working way the hell too much too so hopefully I will be able to get time to get some more posts up. Meanwhile, some of you can feel free to work something up for the blog as well :)

Randy

How's That 1st Round Pick Working For Ya?

No single event is more anticipated than the annual draft. More collective time and effort is focused on this one 1 1/2 hr to 2 hr time frame than most entire weeks during the season. And no pick is more important in the draft than that all important 1st rounder. The goal is simple. Make the best possible pick to anchor your team on your quest for league supremacy.

Some managers think that nothing is a better predictor of final season outcomes than the original draft results. I do not happen to fall in to that general mindset. I have always contended that you can not win the league on draft day but you can go a long way toward complicating the process with an ill prepared draft strategy.  My theory is that nothing is more crucial to league success than daily team management. The ability to stay on top of everything from injuries and slumps to hot streaks and changing roles is the key to a successful season.

And of course a little personal intuition can come in handy too from time to time.

So, with that in mind and inspired by Stars "Biggest Bust" poll, I decided to go back and compare just how well all that pre-draft blood, sweat and tears has paid off for us.

First, let's go back to draft day and recall who those all important 1st round picks were. I have them listed in the order they were drafted and which team drafted them and then put their year-to-date "rank" (not O-Rank) in the final columns as a comparison.

Brace yourself........



Kemp, Tulo, and Ellsbury have spent appreciable amounts of time on the DL so it is easy to attribute their performance (or lack thereof) to injury. But did you really intentionally invest a first round pick in someone you anticipated being injured? I think not.

So what's A Gonzalez, Pujols and Fielder's excuse?

Looks like the 2 picks performing closest to their perceived value are Braun and Votto. Both of whom have subsequently been dealt away

So just who IS the top player in the league? What SHOULD that 1st round have looked like?

So glad you asked. As of today (6/19/12) your top 12 performers by "rank" are as follows. Notice the original draft positions of players (2.9= Round 2 pick 9)



Ha! After hours of podcasts, mock drafts, expert analysis articles and a half dozen cheat sheets thrown in for good measure, the #1 starting pitcher was sitting there on the waiver wire the whole time.... who knew? I am sure Timmy was also thinking "stud" all the way when he nabbed Kipnis in the 14th as well.

Ok, enough of the fun. It's not even officially mid-season yet and there is a lot of baseball to be played. Before things are over Pujols could very well be back in the top 12 along with several others drafted in the 1st round. But the fact remains that if you were counting on Tulo to take you to the promised land this season then you are probably in a world of shit right now. (ooops.... sorry about that Chad... lol)

Maybe that 1st round pick ain't so crucial after all ........

Speak your piece or forever hold your mind .. (or something like that)

Roto Standings thru Week 10

Weekly roto leader was Tenn Hitters with 98 points. Champs was tops in offense with 64 pts while Sultan of Swat led the pitching categories with 52 pts.



One more week and we will be able to do some mid season recaps.

Very competitive league as always.

Roto Standings through Week 9

The weekly roto champ was Champions with 95 pts. Hardballers led the way offensively with 59 pts while Hitters led the pitching (that sounds odd) with 49 pts.

After Baseman makes his post concerning hitting having more overall effect than pitching he moves into the top spot in pitching. That's practicing what you preach... lol



With mid-season right around the corner I intend to post some mid-season stat comparisons. If any of you have any ideas of some things you would like to see just let me know and I will see what I can do.