We have looked at how draft positions have fared but Kerm was interested in seeing how managers had fared with draft position. He was convinced that he had historically bad positions from which to draft from.
Sounded like a reasonable thing to look at so I put together a couple of spreadsheets to demonstrate how the "luck of the draw" had worked out over the years.
This first chart shows where managers wound up in the random draft order. I have recorded the draft position for all active managers by year and then averaged em out to get an "Average Draft Position". I ranked them in order from lowest average draft position to highest.
The 1st thing that jumps out at me is the fact that I (Hardballers) have wound up with the 1st pick 3 times. I know that the history of #1 picks has been favorable but I swear I think I have had more than my share. Also it is worth noting that Mike (Ageless) has never drafted above pick 5 and that only happened 1 time. Everything else is from 8 and up!
Excluding Panties small sample size, there is a 2.4 pick difference from top to bottom. Can 2 draft positions really make that much difference in overall outcomes?
Well let's see.....
Below is a chart showing the yearly regular season finish for each active team in the league followed by average regular season finish (Avg) then differential from draft position (Diff +/-).
Judging from the differentials it appears that Stars, Baseman and Ageless are going to improve their lot no matter where they pick. Even with 3 #1 picks (which can't be improved on) I still had a differential of 1.4 which is pretty good I think.
On the negative side Champions has a differential of -1.7 followed by FTB with a -1.2. Again Panties sample size is too small to consider.
Utica, with an average draft position of 7.4 and an average finish of 8.0 then one might argue that where you draft is pretty much where you will finish. Looking at things year to year though, you have improved upon your draft position a few times while dropping down a few times as well.
The bottom line is this. DRAFT POSITION DOES NOT DETERMINE FINISH!! Period.
We all need a good draft to get off on the right foot at the beginning of the season. We all need a little luck to avoid injuries to key players throughout the season. But the key to overall success is the in-season management of our rosters and reacting to the nuances that creep up on all of us throughout the season.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it !
Hardballers.
Man, you're right. Draft position doesn't determine finish (which I've always 'felt' was true). This also proves, in my case, that I'm a shitty ass manager. Instead, I make my team worse.
ReplyDeleteTime to look in the mirror. And, I don't need any advise, please. :) Not here, or in a trade, or elsewhere. :)
Of course, this year, I believe that it would be hard to make my team worse after the pathetic draft I had.