Nate Silver.
Known as a statistical wunderkind, his models predicted the final outcome of the 2008 presidential election to within .4 percent of the final popular vote. But more important to many Democrats who had their hopes for electoral victory dashed by George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, FiveThirtyEight.com--which got its name from the total number of electoral votes available--was able to provide daily affirmation that Barack Obama was really winning, even when many were tempted to believe he would be overcome by Sen. John McCain.
What many might not know is that Silver first came to prominence not in the political realm, but in baseball, where he authored Baseball Prospectus, a well-regarded baseball statistics site. Many might see the connection between baseball and politics as far-fetched, but to people like Silver, it's a very direct path.Q: How are political campaigns and baseball connected?
Silver: There is kind of the same rhythm to political campaigns and baseball seasons. You have to be patient to appreciate it. In political campaigns that last two years, you have certain primaries, like Iowa and New Hampshire, that are very important. And two conventions, three or four debates, and the vice presidents being picked. Collectively, those took up about 20 days, whereas the campaign lasted about 700 days.
So there's not much high-impact stuff, and you have to follow it every single day, and understand how little threads become big threads, and how the picture develops very slowly. That's similar to baseball, which has a long season.
When people start giving you a lot of grief about the senseless act of getting into fantasy sports, especially if you tend to get into the numbers and spreadsheets and the like, just tell them you are honing your skills for bigger and better things to come.
Only problem I have with Nate is this.... Why did he have to be so accurate this time????
Randy
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